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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

29-28-13  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Mar 21 • 7:00 PM ET
Canadian Tire Centre
View Odds Details →

OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

35-24-9  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Troy Stecher
GOALTENDER

Troy Stecher

#28 | Defense
@
Linus Ullmark
GOALTENDER

Linus Ullmark

#35 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Troy Stecher None-None -- -- --
Linus Ullmark None-None 2.00 0.857 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 2.00
-- Save % 0.857
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
📊
SENATORS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS --
SENATORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Ottawa)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 SenatorsOTT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

30.9%

Senators Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)

TOR By 1 goal

12.1%

TOR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

OTT By 1 goal

19.7%

OTT By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TORONTO
4
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
4
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Senators Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Senators Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Senators (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Senators (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 OTT @ TOR 3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026 TOR @ OTT 1 - 3
Mar 21, 2026 TOR @ OTT 2 - 5
Feb 28, 2026 OTT @ TOR 5 - 2
Dec 27, 2025 OTT @ TOR 5 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +62.2%
Ottawa: 63.5% vs Toronto: 1.3%
Takeaways (L5) +16.6% more
Ottawa: 4.6 vs Toronto: 4.0
Hits (L5) +11.9% more
Ottawa: 24.8 vs Toronto: 22.2
Faceoff % (L5) +5.9%
Ottawa: 58.7% vs Toronto: 52.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.0 2
OTT Score 4.0 5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
78%MONEY22%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
TOR
OTT
TOR
ML
0% 0-3
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-3
0% 0-4
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
TTL
67% 2-1
100% 4-0
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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