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CAROLINA

HURRICANESCAR

43-19-6  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Mar 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

29-28-12  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Brandon Bussi
GOALTENDER

Brandon Bussi

#32 | Goaltender
@
Troy Stecher
GOALTENDER

Troy Stecher

#28 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Brandon Bussi None-None 2.97 0.885 --
Troy Stecher None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.97 GAA --
0.885 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
HURRICANES
0%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
HURRICANES --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
HurricanesCAR (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hurricanes Cover

30.9%

Maple Leafs Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

CAR By 1 goal

19.7%

CAR By 2-3 goals

29.6%

TOR By 1 goal

12.1%

TOR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
CAROLINA
2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
4
CAROLINA
2
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hurricanes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hurricanes Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Maple Leafs (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Hurricanes (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 20, 2026 CAR @ TOR 4 - 3
Dec 4, 2025 TOR @ CAR 5 - 1
Nov 9, 2025 CAR @ TOR 5 - 4
Apr 13, 2025 TOR @ CAR 4 - 1
Feb 22, 2025 CAR @ TOR 3 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +38.9% more
Carolina: 5.7 vs Toronto: 3.5
Power Play % (L5) +19.2%
Carolina: 20.5% vs Toronto: 1.3%
Shots on Goal (L5) +16.8% more
Carolina: 31.3 vs Toronto: 26.1
Hits (L5) +8.1% more
Carolina: 24.8 vs Toronto: 22.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAR Score 3.0 4
TOR Score 2.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
85%MONEY15%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CAR
TOR
CAR
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
TTL
100% 4-0
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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