PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
39-30 | Road
100
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
51-18 | Home
101
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
SPURS
0%
SUNS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
PHX By 1-7 points
23.0%
PHX By 8-14 points
12.2%
SA By 1-7 points
26.8%
SA By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
109
PHOENIX
San Antonio
111
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Phoenix
104
PHOENIX
San Antonio
116
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u228.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Sim
u228.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 19, 2026
PHX @ SA
100 - 101
Feb 19, 2026
PHX @ SA
94 - 121
Nov 23, 2025
SA @ PHX
102 - 111
Nov 2, 2025
SA @ PHX
118 - 130
Apr 11, 2025
SA @ PHX
98 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+33.9% more
San Antonio: 5.6
vs
Phoenix: 4.2
Assists (L5)
+33.9% more
San Antonio: 32.9
vs
Phoenix: 24.6
Rebounding (L5)
+29.4% more
San Antonio: 49.6
vs
Phoenix: 38.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.1%
San Antonio: 49.2%
vs
Phoenix: 44.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
109.0
100
SA Score
111.0
101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.5 / 37.0
29.0 / 31.0
Assists
32.9 / 24.6
23.0 / 27.0
Blocks
5.6 / 4.2
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.2 / 44.2
42.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
80.7 / 77.8
91.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
49.6 / 38.4
42.0 / 47.0
Steals
5.6 / 9.1
6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 12.5
14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
PHX
SA
PHX
ML
60%
111-73
57%
60-45
58%
61-44
51%
45-43
ATS
58%
107-76-1
58%
59-43-3
58%
61-44
51%
45-43
TTL
74%
134-47-3
59%
61-42-2
100%
105-0
100%
88-0
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