Home / NHL Projections NHL / Sabres @ Sharks BUF @ SJ

BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

42-20-6  |  Road

5
FINAL
Thu, Mar 19 • 10:00 PM ET
SAP Center at San Jose
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSE

SHARKSSJ

32-28-6  |  Home

0
Goaltending
Alex Lyon
GOALTENDER

Alex Lyon

#34 | Goaltender
@
Alex Nedeljkovic
GOALTENDER

Alex Nedeljkovic

#33 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Alex Lyon None-None 0.00 1.000 1
Alex Nedeljkovic None-None 5.00 0.688 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
0.00 Ldr GAA 5.00
1.000 Ldr Save % 0.688
1 Ldr SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
0%
📊
SHARKS
100%
SABRES --
SHARKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SAN JOSE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SabresBUF (-3.5) 0 SharksSJ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sabres Cover

30.9%

Sharks Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around SJ +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJ)

BUF By 1 goal

19.7%

BUF By 2-3 goals

29.6%

SJ By 1 goal

12.1%

SJ By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
BUFFALO
2
SAN JOSE
Simulated Score
4
BUFFALO
2
SAN JOSE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Sabres Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sabres Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sharks (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Sabres (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 19, 2026 BUF @ SJ 5 - 0
Mar 10, 2026 SJ @ BUF 3 - 6
Mar 4, 2025 SJ @ BUF 6 - 2
Nov 23, 2024 BUF @ SJ 4 - 2
Jan 27, 2024 BUF @ SJ 5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +25.9%
Buffalo: 26.3% vs San Jose: 0.4%
Takeaways (L5) +18.5% more
Buffalo: 5.5 vs San Jose: 4.5
Shots on Goal (L5) +15.1% more
Buffalo: 27.2 vs San Jose: 23.1
Faceoff % (L5) +7.2%
Buffalo: 48.1% vs San Jose: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 3.0 5
SJ Score 2.0 0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
93%MONEY7%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJ
BUF
SJ
BUF
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…
yahoo 21 hours, 44 minutes ago
Sharks Stunned: Celebrini Sidelined by Lower-Body Injury Moments…
yahoo 2 days, 21 hours ago
Sharks' Celebrini Sidelined with Lower-Body Injury in Loss to St…
yahoo 2 days, 21 hours ago
Sharks Place Forward Patrick Giles on Waivers
yardbarker 4 days, 3 hours ago
Jiri Kulich's Emotional Game-Winner Lifts Sabres Over Blackhawks…
theathleticuk 4 days, 15 hours ago