Home / NBA Projections NBA / Jazz @ Timberwolves UTAH @ MIN

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

20-48  |  Road

111
FINAL
Wed, Mar 18 • 8:00 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

42-27  |  Home

147
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
JAZZ --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Minnesota)
JazzUTAH (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jazz Cover

38.2%

Timberwolves Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

UTAH By 1-7 points

21.6%

UTAH By 8-14 points

10.7%

MIN By 1-7 points

27.2%

MIN By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
117
UTAH
120
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
118
UTAH
112
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jazz Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (+13) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Jazz (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o230.5 Win
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Sim u230.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 18, 2026 UTAH @ MIN 111 - 147
Jan 20, 2026 MIN @ UTAH 122 - 127
Nov 10, 2025 MIN @ UTAH 120 - 113
Nov 7, 2025 UTAH @ MIN 97 - 137
Apr 13, 2025 UTAH @ MIN 105 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +60.3% more
Minnesota: 6.6 vs Utah: 4.1
Turnovers (L5) +21.8% more
Minnesota: 18.7 vs Utah: 15.4
Rebounding (L5) +8.4% more
Minnesota: 44.3 vs Utah: 40.8
Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
Minnesota: 50.7% vs Utah: 46.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 117.0 111
MIN Score 120.0 147
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 37.7 46.0 / 33.0
Assists 24.5 / 25.9 39.0 / 26.0
Blocks 6.6 / 4.1 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 50.7 / 46.4 54.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 76.7 / 76.9 83.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 44.3 / 40.8 46.0 / 46.0
Steals 6.7 / 11.3 15.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 18.7 / 15.4 17.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH Advantage
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
UTAH
MIN
UTAH
ML
54% 63-53
60% 96-63
54% 50-43
48% 40-43
ATS
58% 67-49
68% 108-51
54% 50-43
48% 40-43
TTL
63% 72-43-1
75% 119-39-1
100% 93-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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