Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rams @ Tar Heels VCU @ UNC

VCU

RAMSVCU

27-7  |  Road

82
FINAL
Thu, Mar 19 • 6:50 PM ET
Bon Secours Wellness Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

24-8  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
100%
📊
TAR HEELS
0%
RAMS --
TAR HEELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (North Carolina)
RamsVCU (-3.5) 0 Tar HeelsUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rams Cover

46.0%

Tar Heels Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

VCU By 1-7 points

24.3%

VCU By 8-14 points

13.7%

UNC By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNC By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
85
VCU
86
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
69
VCU
78
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tar Heels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Tar Heels (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 19, 2026 VCU @ UNC 82 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +45.8% more
North Carolina: 10.9 vs VCU: 7.5
Assists (L5) +11.0% more
North Carolina: 14.1 vs VCU: 12.7
Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
North Carolina: 46.6% vs VCU: 43.9%
Steals (L5) +43.0% more
VCU: 7.2 vs North Carolina: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VCU Score 85.0 82
UNC Score 86.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.8 / 40.0 28.0 / 42.0
Assists 14.1 / 12.7 18.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.5 / 3.5 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 43.9 41.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 72.5 / 72.8 60.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 34.9 44.0 / 39.0
Steals 4.1 / 7.2 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 7.5 8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VCU Advantage
28-8-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 9.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
UNC
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VCU
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
UNC Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
VCU
16-20-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -0.2
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
VCU
UNC
VCU
ML
76% 25-8
72% 26-10
69% 22-10
67% 22-11
ATS
73% 24-9
81% 29-7
69% 22-10
67% 22-11
TTL
55% 18-15
58% 21-15
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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