Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rainbow Warriors @ Razorbacks HAW @ ARK

HAWAI'I

RAINBOW WARRIORSHAW

24-8  |  Road

78
FINAL
Thu, Mar 19 • 4:25 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS

RAZORBACKSARK

26-8  |  Home

97
AI Model Win Probability
RAINBOW WARRIORS
100%
📊
RAZORBACKS
0%
RAINBOW WARRIORS --
RAZORBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Arkansas)
Rainbow WarriorsHAW (-3.5) 0 RazorbacksARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rainbow Warriors Cover

24.2%

Razorbacks Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARK -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)

HAW By 1-7 points

15.3%

HAW By 8-14 points

5.8%

ARK By 1-7 points

26.2%

ARK By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
79
HAWAI'I
86
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
65
HAWAI'I
78
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Razorbacks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Razorbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Razorbacks (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Razorbacks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o158.5 Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 19, 2026 HAW @ ARK 78 - 97
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +19.4%
Arkansas: 46.9% vs Hawai'i: 27.5%
Assists (L5) +16.4% more
Arkansas: 16.9 vs Hawai'i: 14.5
Field Goal % (L5) +5.0%
Arkansas: 49.1% vs Hawai'i: 44.1%
Turnovers (L5) +31.7% more
Hawai'i: 13.4 vs Arkansas: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HAW Score 79.0 78
ARK Score 86.0 97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 46.9 / 27.5 19.0 / 33.0
Assists 16.9 / 14.5 26.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.4 / 6.0 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 44.1 54.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 74.1 / 74.9 88.0 / 55.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 40.6 41.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.6 / 7.1 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 13.4 10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HAW
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
ARK Advantage
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HAW
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
ARK Advantage
23-14-0 (62.2%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
HAW
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -0.1
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5% Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
HAW
ARK
HAW
ML
68% 25-12
61% 20-13
81% 25-6
68% 21-10
ATS
70% 26-11
67% 22-11
81% 25-6
68% 21-10
TTL
57% 21-16
61% 20-13
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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