SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
50-18 | Road
132
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
18-51 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
KINGS
0%
SPURS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Sacramento)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
SA By 1-7 points
18.6%
SA By 8-14 points
8.0%
SAC By 1-7 points
27.2%
SAC By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
113
SAN ANTONIO
Sacramento
118
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
San Antonio
109
SAN ANTONIO
Sacramento
118
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Kings
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Kings (+13.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Kings (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u236.0
Push
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Sim
u236.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
SA @ SAC
132 - 104
Feb 21, 2026
SAC @ SA
122 - 139
Nov 16, 2025
SAC @ SA
110 - 123
Mar 7, 2025
SA @ SAC
109 - 127
Dec 6, 2024
SAC @ SA
140 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+39.0% more
Sacramento: 8.2
vs
San Antonio: 5.9
Turnovers (L5)
+21.5% more
Sacramento: 15.6
vs
San Antonio: 12.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Sacramento: 50.9%
vs
San Antonio: 47.9%
Blocks (L5)
+25.9% more
San Antonio: 5.9
vs
Sacramento: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
113.0
132
SAC Score
118.0
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 35.3
39.0 / 51.0
Assists
27.3 / 28.8
32.0 / 41.0
Blocks
4.4 / 5.9
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
50.9 / 47.9
44.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
77.3 / 78.5
62.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
47.0 / 49.4
41.0 / 50.0
Steals
8.2 / 5.9
4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
15.6 / 12.9
8.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
SA
SAC
SA
ML
55%
55-45
60%
111-73
61%
50-32
58%
61-44
ATS
54%
52-45-3
58%
107-76-1
61%
50-32
58%
61-44
TTL
58%
57-42-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
82-0
100%
105-0
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