PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
39-29 | Road
104
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
41-27 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
SUNS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
247.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
PHX By 1-7 points
12.2%
PHX By 8-14 points
4.0%
MIN By 1-7 points
24.3%
MIN By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
119
PHOENIX
Minnesota
128
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Phoenix
112
PHOENIX
Minnesota
115
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Timberwolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o221.5
Loss
Proj Total: 247.0
D
Sim
u221.5
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
PHX @ MIN
104 - 116
Dec 8, 2025
PHX @ MIN
108 - 105
Nov 21, 2025
MIN @ PHX
113 - 114
Mar 28, 2025
PHX @ MIN
109 - 124
Mar 2, 2025
MIN @ PHX
116 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+62.5% more
Minnesota: 19.1
vs
Phoenix: 11.8
Rebounding (L5)
+11.8% more
Minnesota: 41.9
vs
Phoenix: 37.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
Minnesota: 50.5%
vs
Phoenix: 47.3%
Blocks (L5)
+17.0% more
Phoenix: 5.3
vs
Minnesota: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
119.0
104
MIN Score
128.0
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.2 / 38.0
32.0 / 35.0
Assists
22.8 / 24.4
28.0 / 25.0
Blocks
4.4 / 5.3
11.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
50.5 / 47.3
51.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
79.0 / 79.7
72.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
41.9 / 37.5
49.0 / 40.0
Steals
6.1 / 7.1
8.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
19.1 / 11.8
18.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
PHX
MIN
PHX
ML
54%
63-53
57%
60-45
54%
50-43
51%
45-43
ATS
58%
67-49
58%
59-43-3
54%
50-43
51%
45-43
TTL
63%
72-43-1
59%
61-42-2
100%
93-0
100%
88-0
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