Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / RedHawks @ Mustangs M-OH @ SMU

MIAMI (OH)

REDHAWKSM-OH

31-1  |  Road

89
FINAL
Wed, Mar 18 • 9:15 PM ET
UD Arena
View Odds Details →

SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

20-13  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
REDHAWKS
100%
📊
MUSTANGS
0%
REDHAWKS --
MUSTANGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (SMU)
RedHawksM-OH (-3.5) 0 MustangsSMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

RedHawks Cover

18.4%

Mustangs Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

M-OH By 1-7 points

12.2%

M-OH By 8-14 points

4.0%

SMU By 1-7 points

24.3%

SMU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
64
MIAMI (OH)
73
SMU
Simulated Score
69
MIAMI (OH)
78
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mustangs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mustangs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mustangs (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Mustangs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u161.5 Loss
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 18, 2026 M-OH @ SMU 89 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +36.2% more
SMU: 3.4 vs Miami (OH): 2.5
Turnovers (L5) +22.4% more
SMU: 11.6 vs Miami (OH): 9.5
Rebounding (L5) +12.6% more
SMU: 37.0 vs Miami (OH): 32.8
Steals (L5) +9.4% more
SMU: 6.3 vs Miami (OH): 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
M-OH Score 64.0 89
SMU Score 73.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.1 / 36.3 24.0 / 39.0
Assists 13.5 / 14.2 15.0 / 20.0
Blocks 3.4 / 2.5 0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 49.0 48.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 60.4 / 69.0 80.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 37.0 / 32.8 35.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.3 / 5.8 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 9.5 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
M-OH Advantage
32-2-0 (94.1%)
Margin: 14.1 ATS +/-: +3.2
SMU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
M-OH Advantage
20-11-0 (64.5%)
Margin: 14.1 ATS +/-: +3.2
SMU
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
M-OH
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +5.6
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
M-OH
SMU
M-OH
ML
59% 20-14
45% 15-18
73% 24-9
41% 13-19
ATS
62% 21-13
61% 20-13
73% 24-9
41% 13-19
TTL
56% 19-15
61% 20-13
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Princeton Basketball Standout A'mire Gill Pledges to Miami (Ohio…
yahoo 1 week, 4 days ago
SMU's Rise from NCAA Scandal to ACC Contender: A New Sheriff in …
oanow 1 month ago
The SMU Mustangs mascot will be ready for non-conference play. M…
si 2 months, 3 weeks ago
Nyair McCoy pledges to the University of Mississippi
si 3 months ago
Sep 6, 2025; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Utes quarterback Is…
si 3 months, 1 week ago