Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tommies @ Redhawks STMN @ SEA

ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA

TOMMIESSTMN

24-9  |  Road

52
FINAL
Tue, Mar 17 • 10:00 PM ET
Redhawk Center
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE U

REDHAWKSSEA

20-13  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
TOMMIES
0%
📊
REDHAWKS
100%
TOMMIES --
REDHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (St. Thomas-Minnesota)
TommiesSTMN (-3.5) 0 RedhawksSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tommies Cover

90.3%

Redhawks Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around STMN -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STMN)

STMN By 1-7 points

18.6%

STMN By 8-14 points

26.8%

SEA By 1-7 points

6.8%

SEA By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
79
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
66
SEATTLE U
Simulated Score
71
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
78
SEATTLE U
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tommies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Redhawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tommies (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Redhawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 17, 2026 STMN @ SEA 52 - 67
Nov 27, 2021 STMN @ SEA 64 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +28.1% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 16.9 vs Seattle U: 12.1
Rebounding (L5) +11.6% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 35.2 vs Seattle U: 31.1
Field Goal % (L5) +7.9%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 48.3% vs Seattle U: 40.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 32.2% vs Seattle U: 30.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STMN Score 79.0 52
SEA Score 66.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.1 / 32.2 43.0 / 23.0
Assists 12.1 / 16.9 15.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.2 / 2.7 7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 40.4 / 48.3 37.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 71.8 / 64.0 82.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 31.1 / 35.2 29.0 / 42.0
Steals 7.5 / 5.1 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 8.6 11.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STMN Advantage
24-10-0 (70.6%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
SEA
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STMN Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
SEA
15-17-1 (46.9%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: -0.3
SEA
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: -4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
STMN
SEA
STMN
ML
46% 16-19
64% 21-12
71% 24-10
64% 21-12
ATS
57% 20-15
70% 23-10
71% 24-10
64% 21-12
TTL
49% 17-18
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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