Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Flames @ Patriots LIB @ GMU

LIBERTY

FLAMESLIB

25-7  |  Road

77
FINAL
Tue, Mar 17 • 6:00 PM ET
EagleBank Arena
View Odds Details →

GEORGE MASON

PATRIOTSGMU

23-9  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
0%
📊
PATRIOTS
100%
FLAMES --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
GEORGE MASON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
FlamesLIB (-3.5) 0 PatriotsGMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flames Cover

46.0%

Patriots Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GMU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GMU)

LIB By 1-7 points

26.2%

LIB By 8-14 points

16.9%

GMU By 1-7 points

24.3%

GMU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
73
LIBERTY
72
GEORGE MASON
Simulated Score
68
LIBERTY
72
GEORGE MASON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Flames Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 17, 2026 LIB @ GMU 77 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +36.7% more
Liberty: 16.7 vs George Mason: 10.6
Blocks (L5) +26.5% more
Liberty: 3.3 vs George Mason: 2.4
Free Throw % (L5) +5.3%
Liberty: 72.8% vs George Mason: 67.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Liberty: 36.0% vs George Mason: 32.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIB Score 73.0 77
GMU Score 72.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.0 / 36.0 29.0 / 35.0
Assists 10.6 / 16.7 7.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.4 / 3.3 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 47.3 39.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 67.5 / 72.8 83.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 34.9 / 27.8 36.0 / 32.0
Steals 5.0 / 5.0 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 8.5 8.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB Advantage
26-8-0 (76.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
GMU
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
GMU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +4.2
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GMU
LIB
GMU
LIB
ML
55% 18-15
50% 17-17
73% 24-9
53% 18-16
ATS
55% 18-15
62% 21-13
73% 24-9
53% 18-16
TTL
58% 19-14
41% 14-20
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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