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NEW YORK

ISLANDERSNYI

38-24-5  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Mar 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

29-27-12  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Ilya Sorokin
GOALTENDER

Ilya Sorokin

#30 | Goaltender
@
Troy Stecher
GOALTENDER

Troy Stecher

#28 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ilya Sorokin None-None 1.00 0.963 --
Troy Stecher None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 GAA --
0.963 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
100%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
ISLANDERS --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
IslandersNYI (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Islanders Cover

30.9%

Maple Leafs Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

NYI By 1 goal

12.1%

NYI By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TOR By 1 goal

19.7%

TOR By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
NEW YORK
3
TORONTO
Simulated Score
2
NEW YORK
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Maple Leafs (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 NYI @ TOR 1 - 2
Apr 9, 2026 TOR @ NYI 3 - 5
Mar 17, 2026 NYI @ TOR 3 - 1
Jan 3, 2026 TOR @ NYI 3 - 4
Jan 2, 2025 TOR @ NYI 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +124.5% more
Toronto: 27.6 vs New York: 12.3
Shots on Goal (L5) +16.5% more
Toronto: 26.1 vs New York: 22.4
Takeaways (L5) +16.2% more
New York: 5.6 vs Toronto: 4.7
Faceoff % (L5) +5.1%
New York: 57.9% vs Toronto: 52.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYI Score 2.0 3
TOR Score 3.0 1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
72%MONEY28%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYI
TOR
NYI
ML
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
TTL
100% 4-0
100% 2-0-1
75% 3-1
100% 2-0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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