TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
28-27-12 | Road
4
MINNESOTA
WILDMIN
38-17-12 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Jesper Wallstedt
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 2.07 | 0.947 | -- |
| Jesper Wallstedt | None-None | 3.08 | 0.880 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.07 Ldr
GAA
3.08
0.947 Ldr
Save %
0.880
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
WILD
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
WILD
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around MIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
TOR By 1 goal
12.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
9.3%
MIN By 1 goal
19.7%
MIN By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wild
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wild
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wild (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Wild (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
TOR @ MIN
4 - 2
Jan 19, 2026
MIN @ TOR
6 - 3
Jan 29, 2025
MIN @ TOR
3 - 1
Nov 3, 2024
TOR @ MIN
1 - 2
Nov 19, 2023
TOR @ MIN
4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+12.7% more
Minnesota: 32.0
vs
Toronto: 28.4
Power Play % (L5)
+4.3%
Minnesota: 43.5%
vs
Toronto: 39.1%
Takeaways (L5)
+23.6% more
Toronto: 5.1
vs
Minnesota: 3.9
Hits (L5)
+15.1% more
Toronto: 29.2
vs
Minnesota: 24.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.0
4
MIN Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.0 / 17.1
13.0 / 28.0
Faceoff %
44.7 / 55.2
47.3 / 52.7
Hits
24.8 / 29.2
22.0 / 14.0
Power Play %
4346.0 / 3913.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
32.0 / 28.4
38.0 / 26.0
Takeaways
3.9 / 5.1
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
TOR
MIN
TOR
ML
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
3-0
100%
4-0
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
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