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MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

41-26  |  Road

103
FINAL
Sun, Mar 15 • 1:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

52-15  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
TIMBERWOLVES --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
253.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Oklahoma City)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

46.0%

Thunder Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

MIN By 1-7 points

24.3%

MIN By 8-14 points

13.7%

OKC By 1-7 points

26.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
126
MINNESOTA
127
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
114
MINNESOTA
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o226.5 Loss
Proj Total: 253.0
D
Sim u226.5 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 15, 2026 MIN @ OKC 103 - 116
Jan 29, 2026 OKC @ MIN 111 - 123
Dec 19, 2025 OKC @ MIN 107 - 112
Nov 26, 2025 MIN @ OKC 105 - 113
May 28, 2025 MIN @ OKC 94 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +11.8% more
Oklahoma City: 4.6 vs Minnesota: 4.1
Turnovers (L5) +34.3% more
Minnesota: 16.1 vs Oklahoma City: 10.6
Field Goal % (L5) +5.5%
Minnesota: 52.3% vs Oklahoma City: 46.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Minnesota: 36.3% vs Oklahoma City: 32.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 126.0 103
OKC Score 127.0 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.1 / 36.3 38.0 / 45.0
Assists 23.9 / 25.2 28.0 / 18.0
Blocks 4.6 / 4.1 6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 52.3 42.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 80.6 / 82.0 89.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 40.7 / 39.9 44.0 / 46.0
Steals 6.8 / 6.6 16.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 16.1 7.0 / 25.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
MIN
OKC
MIN
ML
70% 80-34
54% 63-53
48% 46-49
54% 50-43
ATS
73% 83-30-1
58% 67-49
48% 46-49
54% 50-43
TTL
67% 76-38
63% 72-43-1
100% 95-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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