Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Knicks GS @ NY

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

32-34  |  Road

107
FINAL
Sun, Mar 15 • 8:00 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

KNICKSNY

43-25  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
KNICKS
0%
WARRIORS --
KNICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 KnicksNY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

46.0%

Knicks Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NY)

GS By 1-7 points

24.3%

GS By 8-14 points

13.7%

NY By 1-7 points

26.2%

NY By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
113
GOLDEN STATE
114
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
115
GOLDEN STATE
118
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Knicks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Knicks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Knicks (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Knicks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o219.0 Loss
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim u219.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 15, 2026 GS @ NY 107 - 110
Jan 15, 2026 NY @ GS 113 - 126
Mar 15, 2025 NY @ GS 94 - 97
Mar 4, 2025 GS @ NY 114 - 102
Mar 18, 2024 NY @ GS 119 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.0% more
New York: 14.2 vs Golden State: 11.6
Rebounding (L5) +12.5% more
New York: 49.3 vs Golden State: 43.8
Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
New York: 47.4% vs Golden State: 42.1%
Blocks (L5) +28.7% more
Golden State: 4.4 vs New York: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 113.0 107
NY Score 114.0 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 33.0 31.0 / 37.0
Assists 28.4 / 27.9 23.0 / 27.0
Blocks 3.1 / 4.4 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 42.1 46.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 81.0 / 82.5 96.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 49.3 / 43.8 44.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.8 / 8.9 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 11.6 15.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
NY Advantage
70-32-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
NY Advantage
58-44-0 (56.9%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NY
GS
NY
GS
ML
61% 114-72
55% 95-79
56% 57-45
58% 49-35
ATS
67% 124-62
58% 101-73
56% 57-45
58% 49-35
TTL
72% 133-53
77% 134-40
100% 102-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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