Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rebels @ Razorbacks MISS @ ARK

OLE MISS

REBELSMISS

15-19  |  Road

90
FINAL
Sat, Mar 14 • 3:30 PM ET
Bridgestone Arena
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS

RAZORBACKSARK

24-8  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
0%
📊
RAZORBACKS
100%
REBELS --
RAZORBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
OLE MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Ole Miss)
RebelsMISS (-3.5) 0 RazorbacksARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rebels Cover

84.1%

Razorbacks Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MISS -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

MISS By 1-7 points

23.0%

MISS By 8-14 points

27.2%

ARK By 1-7 points

10.7%

ARK By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
79
OLE MISS
69
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
72
OLE MISS
78
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rebels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Razorbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rebels (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Razorbacks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u158.5 Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 MISS @ ARK 90 - 93
Jan 7, 2026 ARK @ MISS 94 - 87
Mar 13, 2025 ARK @ MISS 80 - 83
Jan 8, 2025 MISS @ ARK 73 - 66
Jan 24, 2024 ARK @ MISS 51 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.4% more
Ole Miss: 10.0 vs Arkansas: 8.6
Blocks (L5) +24.9% more
Arkansas: 5.7 vs Ole Miss: 4.6
Assists (L5) +16.6% more
Arkansas: 14.8 vs Ole Miss: 12.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.1%
Arkansas: 42.3% vs Ole Miss: 33.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MISS Score 79.0 90
ARK Score 69.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.3 / 33.2 32.0 / 31.0
Assists 14.8 / 12.7 15.0 / 9.0
Blocks 5.7 / 4.6 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 45.7 46.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 74.9 / 72.9 74.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 35.8 / 37.2 44.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.3 / 6.9 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 8.6 / 10.0 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MISS
--
ARK Advantage
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MISS
--
ARK Advantage
23-14-0 (62.2%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MISS
--
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5% Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
MISS
ARK
MISS
ML
68% 25-12
48% 16-17
81% 25-6
52% 17-16
ATS
70% 26-11
61% 20-13
81% 25-6
52% 17-16
TTL
57% 21-16
64% 21-12
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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