HOUSTON
COUGARSHOU
28-5 | Road
74
ARIZONA
WILDCATSARIZ
31-2 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
WILDCATS
0%
COUGARS
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARIZ -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)
HOU By 1-7 points
6.8%
HOU By 8-14 points
1.7%
ARIZ By 1-7 points
18.6%
ARIZ By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
72
HOUSTON
Arizona
85
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Houston
69
HOUSTON
Arizona
74
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
HOU @ ARIZ
74 - 79
Feb 21, 2026
ARIZ @ HOU
73 - 66
Mar 15, 2025
ARIZ @ HOU
64 - 72
Feb 15, 2025
HOU @ ARIZ
62 - 58
Mar 24, 2022
HOU @ ARIZ
72 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+28.3% more
Arizona: 16.0
vs
Houston: 12.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.9%
Arizona: 50.9%
vs
Houston: 45.1%
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.5%
Houston: 76.4%
vs
Arizona: 67.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Houston: 42.7%
vs
Arizona: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
72.0
74
ARIZ Score
85.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.0 / 42.7
46.0 / 38.0
Assists
16.0 / 12.4
9.0 / 13.0
Blocks
4.4 / 4.1
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
50.9 / 45.1
46.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
67.8 / 76.4
85.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
38.6 / 37.1
35.0 / 34.0
Steals
7.3 / 7.3
2.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 10.0
8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
ARIZ
Advantage
36-3-0
(92.3%)
Margin: 16.8
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
ARIZ
Advantage
23-15-1
(60.5%)
Margin: 16.8
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -0.9
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
HOU
ARIZ
HOU
ML
67%
26-13
70%
26-11
68%
23-11
68%
23-11
ATS
74%
29-10
70%
26-11
68%
23-11
68%
23-11
TTL
56%
22-17
59%
22-15
100%
34-0
100%
34-0
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