PURDUE
BOILERMAKERSPUR
25-8 | Road
73
UCLA
BRUINSUCLA
23-10 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
BOILERMAKERS
100%
BRUINS
0%
BOILERMAKERS
--
BRUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
UCLA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (UCLA)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCLA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCLA)
PUR By 1-7 points
23.0%
PUR By 8-14 points
12.2%
UCLA By 1-7 points
26.8%
UCLA By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Purdue
78
PURDUE
UCLA
80
UCLA
Simulated Score
Purdue
67
PURDUE
UCLA
74
UCLA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bruins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bruins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bruins (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Bruins (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
PUR @ UCLA
73 - 66
Jan 20, 2026
PUR @ UCLA
67 - 69
Feb 28, 2025
UCLA @ PUR
66 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+62.8% more
UCLA: 8.0
vs
Purdue: 4.9
Blocks (L5)
+9.7% more
UCLA: 2.5
vs
Purdue: 2.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.5%
UCLA: 41.5%
vs
Purdue: 37.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
UCLA: 49.7%
vs
Purdue: 48.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PUR Score
78.0
73
UCLA Score
80.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.5 / 37.0
35.0 / 36.0
Assists
19.1 / 20.9
18.0 / 21.0
Blocks
2.5 / 2.3
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.7 / 48.2
44.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
76.6 / 78.7
82.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
32.5 / 34.1
26.0 / 37.0
Steals
8.0 / 4.9
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
7.9 / 8.4
6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PUR
Advantage
30-9-0
(76.9%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
UCLA
24-12-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PUR
17-22-0
(43.6%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
UCLA
Advantage
17-18-1
(48.6%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
UCLA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCLA
PUR
UCLA
PUR
ML
67%
24-12
67%
26-13
76%
25-8
66%
25-13
ATS
61%
22-14
64%
25-14
76%
25-8
66%
25-13
TTL
61%
22-14
51%
20-19
100%
33-0
100%
38-0
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