Home / NHL Projections NHL / Maple Leafs @ Sabres TOR @ BUF

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

28-27-11  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Mar 14 • 7:00 PM ET
KeyBank Center
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

40-20-6  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Morgan Rielly
GOALTENDER

Morgan Rielly

#44 | Defense
@
Alex Lyon
GOALTENDER

Alex Lyon

#34 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Morgan Rielly None-None -- -- --
Alex Lyon None-None 1.85 0.889 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 1.85
-- Save % 0.889
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
📊
SABRES
100%
MAPLE LEAFS --
SABRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 SabresBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

30.9%

Sabres Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BUF +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

TOR By 1 goal

19.7%

TOR By 2-3 goals

29.6%

BUF By 1 goal

12.1%

BUF By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
TORONTO
3
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
5
TORONTO
2
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sabres (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Maple Leafs (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 TOR @ BUF 2 - 3
Jan 27, 2026 BUF @ TOR 7 - 4
Oct 25, 2025 BUF @ TOR 3 - 4
Oct 24, 2025 TOR @ BUF 3 - 5
Apr 15, 2025 TOR @ BUF 4 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +28.8% more
Toronto: 17.1 vs Buffalo: 12.2
Hits (L5) +16.2% more
Toronto: 26.4 vs Buffalo: 22.1
Power Play % (L5) +12.8%
Toronto: 39.1% vs Buffalo: 26.3%
Faceoff % (L5) +7.1%
Toronto: 55.2% vs Buffalo: 48.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 4.0 2
BUF Score 3.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
89%MONEY11%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
TOR
BUF
TOR
ML
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-4
100% 3-0
75% 3-1
TTL
33% 1-2
100% 4-0
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Joseph Woll's Strong Start in Philadelphia Has Maple Leafs Fans …
yardbarker 25 minutes ago
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
yardbarker 6 hours, 7 minutes ago
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
si 6 hours, 9 minutes ago
Nashville Predators' Early Season: Three Burning Questions After…
tennessean 12 hours, 6 minutes ago
Steelers Bolster Secondary with Addition of Veteran Cornerback S…
si 1 day ago