Home / NHL Projections NHL / Bruins @ Capitals BOS @ WSH

BOSTON

BRUINSBOS

36-23-6  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Mar 14 • 3:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

33-27-7  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Jeremy Swayman
GOALTENDER

Jeremy Swayman

#1 | Goaltender
@
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jeremy Swayman None-None 1.85 0.929 --
Logan Thompson None-None 1.85 0.941 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.85 GAA 1.85
0.929 Save % Ldr 0.941
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
100%
📊
CAPITALS
0%
BRUINS --
CAPITALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
BruinsBOS (-3.5) 0 CapitalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bruins Cover

30.9%

Capitals Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

BOS By 1 goal

12.1%

BOS By 2-3 goals

9.3%

WSH By 1 goal

19.7%

WSH By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
BOSTON
3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
2
BOSTON
3
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Capitals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Capitals Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Capitals (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Capitals (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 BOS @ WSH 3 - 2
Mar 7, 2026 WSH @ BOS 1 - 3
Oct 8, 2025 BOS @ WSH 3 - 1
Oct 2, 2025 BOS @ WSH 3 - 1
Sep 21, 2025 WSH @ BOS 5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +36.8% more
Washington: 6.1 vs Boston: 4.4
Blocked Shots (L5) +27.1% more
Washington: 16.7 vs Boston: 13.2
Hits (L5) +8.4% more
Washington: 21.2 vs Boston: 19.5
Power Play % (L5) +6.4%
Boston: 20.3% vs Washington: 13.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 2.0 3
WSH Score 3.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
24%MONEY76%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
BOS
WSH
BOS
ML
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
TTL
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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