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UCLA

BRUINSUCLA

22-10  |  Road

88
FINAL
Fri, Mar 13 • 9:00 PM ET
United Center
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

25-6  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
0%
📊
SPARTANS
100%
BRUINS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
UCLA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (UCLA)
BruinsUCLA (-3.5) 0 SpartansMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bruins Cover

88.5%

Spartans Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCLA -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCLA)

UCLA By 1-7 points

20.1%

UCLA By 8-14 points

27.2%

MSU By 1-7 points

8.0%

MSU By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
84
UCLA
72
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
68
UCLA
71
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bruins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bruins (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 UCLA @ MSU 88 - 84
Feb 17, 2026 UCLA @ MSU 59 - 82
Feb 4, 2025 MSU @ UCLA 61 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +29.8% more
UCLA: 5.9 vs Michigan State: 4.2
Assists (L5) +9.5% more
UCLA: 18.6 vs Michigan State: 16.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
UCLA: 38.2% vs Michigan State: 35.7%
Blocks (L5) +66.4% more
Michigan State: 3.7 vs UCLA: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCLA Score 84.0 88
MSU Score 72.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.7 / 38.2 48.0 / 48.0
Assists 16.8 / 18.6 24.0 / 20.0
Blocks 3.7 / 2.2 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 46.6 45.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 80.4 / 75.3 77.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 35.8 34.0 / 26.0
Steals 4.2 / 5.9 3.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 7.8 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCLA
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
MSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCLA
17-18-1 (48.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
MSU Advantage
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UCLA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +2.5
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
UCLA
MSU
UCLA
ML
71% 25-10
67% 24-12
61% 20-13
76% 25-8
ATS
71% 25-10
61% 22-14
61% 20-13
76% 25-8
TTL
49% 17-18
61% 22-14
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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