Home / NBA Projections NBA / Timberwolves @ Warriors MIN @ GS

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

40-26  |  Road

127
FINAL
Fri, Mar 13 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

32-33  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
TIMBERWOLVES --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Golden State)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

46.0%

Warriors Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

MIN By 1-7 points

24.3%

MIN By 8-14 points

13.7%

GS By 1-7 points

26.2%

GS By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
109
MINNESOTA
110
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
112
MINNESOTA
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Warriors (+6) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u224.5 Loss
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Sim u224.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 MIN @ GS 127 - 117
Jan 26, 2026 GS @ MIN 83 - 108
Jan 25, 2026 GS @ MIN 111 - 85
Dec 12, 2025 MIN @ GS 127 - 120
May 14, 2025 GS @ MIN 110 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +68.7% more
Golden State: 6.1 vs Minnesota: 3.6
Steals (L5) +34.7% more
Golden State: 9.3 vs Minnesota: 6.9
Rebounding (L5) +25.1% more
Golden State: 46.7 vs Minnesota: 37.4
Assists (L5) +20.1% more
Golden State: 30.4 vs Minnesota: 25.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 109.0 127
GS Score 110.0 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.0 / 34.5 31.0 / 40.0
Assists 30.4 / 25.3 23.0 / 25.0
Blocks 6.1 / 3.6 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 50.4 40.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 75.8 / 79.0 96.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 46.7 / 37.4 38.0 / 45.0
Steals 9.3 / 6.9 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 15.7 9.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
MIN
GS
MIN
ML
55% 95-79
54% 63-53
58% 49-35
54% 50-43
ATS
58% 101-73
58% 67-49
58% 49-35
54% 50-43
TTL
77% 134-40
63% 72-43-1
100% 84-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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