Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Bulldogs MOST @ LT

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

16-17  |  Road

66
FINAL
Fri, Mar 13 • 12:30 PM ET
Propst Arena
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA TECH

BULLDOGSLT

19-13  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
BEARS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Louisiana Tech)
BearsMOST (-3.5) 0 BulldogsLT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

27.4%

Bulldogs Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LT -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LT)

MOST By 1-7 points

16.9%

MOST By 8-14 points

6.8%

LT By 1-7 points

26.8%

LT By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
72
MISSOURI STATE
78
LOUISIANA TECH
Simulated Score
70
MISSOURI STATE
75
LOUISIANA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o134.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 MOST @ LT 66 - 69
Feb 26, 2026 MOST @ LT 70 - 72
Feb 12, 2026 LT @ MOST 79 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +94.0% more
Louisiana Tech: 10.3 vs Missouri State: 5.3
Blocks (L5) +92.1% more
Louisiana Tech: 4.6 vs Missouri State: 2.4
Free Throw % (L5) +17.3%
Louisiana Tech: 81.0% vs Missouri State: 63.7%
Turnovers (L5) +11.4% more
Louisiana Tech: 11.3 vs Missouri State: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 72.0 66
LT Score 78.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.5 / 40.7 27.0 / 27.0
Assists 15.6 / 15.8 11.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.6 / 2.4 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 50.4 48.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 81.0 / 63.7 72.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 31.7 34.0 / 29.0
Steals 10.3 / 5.3 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 10.2 7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
LT Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
LT
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
LT
15-15-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LT
MOST
LT
MOST
ML
58% 19-14
65% 22-12
72% 23-9
62% 21-13
ATS
61% 20-13
68% 23-11
72% 23-9
62% 21-13
TTL
61% 20-13
44% 15-19
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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