WISCONSIN
BADGERSWIS
23-9 | Road
91
ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
24-7 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
BADGERS
100%
FIGHTING ILLINI
0%
BADGERS
--
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILL -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)
WIS By 1-7 points
6.8%
WIS By 8-14 points
1.7%
ILL By 1-7 points
18.6%
ILL By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Wisconsin
68
WISCONSIN
Illinois
81
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Wisconsin
66
WISCONSIN
Illinois
69
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Fighting Illini
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Fighting Illini (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u157.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 13, 2026
WIS @ ILL
91 - 88
Feb 10, 2026
WIS @ ILL
92 - 90
Feb 18, 2025
ILL @ WIS
74 - 95
Dec 10, 2024
WIS @ ILL
80 - 86
Mar 17, 2024
WIS @ ILL
87 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+31.2% more
Illinois: 3.6
vs
Wisconsin: 2.7
Rebounding (L5)
+25.3% more
Illinois: 38.2
vs
Wisconsin: 30.5
Turnovers (L5)
+12.7% more
Illinois: 7.5
vs
Wisconsin: 6.7
Assists (L5)
+20.3% more
Wisconsin: 17.5
vs
Illinois: 13.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WIS Score
68.0
91
ILL Score
81.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.2 / 42.1
29.0 / 24.0
Assists
13.9 / 17.5
16.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.6 / 2.7
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 47.6
50.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
81.4 / 90.7
60.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
38.2 / 30.5
36.0 / 37.0
Steals
4.9 / 5.3
1.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
7.5 / 6.7
7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIS
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
ILL
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIS
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WIS
22-13-0
O: 62.9% / U: 37.1%
Total +/-: +3.5
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
WIS
ILL
WIS
ML
65%
24-13
60%
21-14
57%
20-15
69%
24-11
ATS
70%
26-11
51%
18-17
57%
20-15
69%
24-11
TTL
57%
21-16
57%
20-15
100%
35-0
100%
35-0
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