DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
40-26 | Road
136
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
48-17 | Home
131
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
SPURS
100%
NUGGETS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
DEN By 1-7 points
26.2%
DEN By 8-14 points
16.9%
SA By 1-7 points
24.3%
SA By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
117
DENVER
San Antonio
116
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Denver
108
DENVER
San Antonio
122
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u240.0
Loss
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Sim
u240.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
DEN @ SA
128 - 118
Apr 4, 2026
SA @ DEN
134 - 136
Mar 12, 2026
DEN @ SA
136 - 131
Nov 28, 2025
SA @ DEN
139 - 136
Apr 2, 2025
SA @ DEN
113 - 106
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+26.6% more
Denver: 7.0
vs
San Antonio: 5.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.1%
Denver: 75.3%
vs
San Antonio: 71.2%
Blocks (L5)
+90.8% more
San Antonio: 5.6
vs
Denver: 2.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
San Antonio: 52.0%
vs
Denver: 50.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
117.0
136
SA Score
116.0
131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.7 / 41.3
40.0 / 33.0
Assists
30.4 / 30.6
34.0 / 27.0
Blocks
5.6 / 2.9
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
52.0 / 50.0
45.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
71.2 / 75.3
81.0 / 95.0
Rebounding
43.3 / 43.9
49.0 / 47.0
Steals
5.1 / 7.0
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 12.0
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
DEN
SA
DEN
ML
60%
111-73
54%
57-48
58%
61-44
55%
47-39
ATS
58%
107-76-1
63%
65-38-2
58%
61-44
55%
47-39
TTL
74%
134-47-3
54%
56-48-1
100%
105-0
100%
86-0
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