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WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

32-27-7  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 7:00 PM ET
KeyBank Center
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

40-19-6  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Charlie Lindgren
GOALTENDER

Charlie Lindgren

#79 | Goaltender
@
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
GOALTENDER

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

#1 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Charlie Lindgren None-None 1.00 0.967 --
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen None-None 2.05 0.909 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 Ldr GAA 2.05
0.967 Ldr Save % 0.909
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
📊
SABRES
100%
CAPITALS --
SABRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CapitalsWSH (-3.5) 0 SabresBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Capitals Cover

30.9%

Sabres Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BUF +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

WSH By 1 goal

19.7%

WSH By 2-3 goals

29.6%

BUF By 1 goal

12.1%

BUF By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
WASHINGTON
3
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
2
WASHINGTON
5
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Capitals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sabres Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sabres (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Sabres (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u7.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 4, 2026 BUF @ WSH 2 - 6
Mar 12, 2026 WSH @ BUF 2 - 1
Nov 1, 2025 WSH @ BUF 3 - 4
Mar 30, 2025 BUF @ WSH 8 - 5
Jan 6, 2025 WSH @ BUF 3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +27.3% more
Washington: 16.7 vs Buffalo: 12.2
Faceoff % (L5) +2.0%
Washington: 50.1% vs Buffalo: 48.1%
Takeaways (L5) +22.6% more
Buffalo: 5.6 vs Washington: 4.6
Power Play % (L5) +12.4%
Buffalo: 26.3% vs Washington: 13.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.0 2
BUF Score 3.0 1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
93%MONEY7%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
WSH
BUF
WSH
ML
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
TTL
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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