Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rebels @ Bulldogs MISS @ UGA

OLE MISS

REBELSMISS

13-19  |  Road

76
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Bridgestone Arena
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA

BULLDOGSUGA

22-9  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
REBELS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
OLE MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Ole Miss)
RebelsMISS (-3.5) 0 BulldogsUGA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rebels Cover

90.3%

Bulldogs Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MISS -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

MISS By 1-7 points

18.6%

MISS By 8-14 points

26.8%

UGA By 1-7 points

6.8%

UGA By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
85
OLE MISS
72
GEORGIA
Simulated Score
70
OLE MISS
75
GEORGIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rebels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rebels (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o156.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 MISS @ UGA 76 - 72
Jan 14, 2026 MISS @ UGA 97 - 95
Jan 4, 2025 UGA @ MISS 51 - 63
Mar 5, 2024 MISS @ UGA 66 - 69
Feb 7, 2023 MISS @ UGA 78 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +16.0% more
Ole Miss: 9.3 vs Georgia: 7.8
Blocks (L5) +8.8% more
Ole Miss: 4.5 vs Georgia: 4.1
Assists (L5) +30.2% more
Georgia: 17.0 vs Ole Miss: 13.0
Turnovers (L5) +29.3% more
Georgia: 10.7 vs Ole Miss: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MISS Score 85.0 76
UGA Score 72.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 48.0 / 20.7 24.0 / 45.0
Assists 17.0 / 13.0 10.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.1 / 4.5 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 51.1 / 45.9 36.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 84.1 / 77.8 60.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 31.9 / 33.1 42.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.8 / 9.3 11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 8.3 11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MISS
--
UGA Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 9.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MISS
--
UGA Advantage
15-17-1 (46.9%)
Margin: 9.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MISS
--
UGA
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5% Total +/-: +4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UGA
MISS
UGA
MISS
ML
67% 22-11
48% 16-17
56% 18-14
52% 17-16
ATS
61% 20-13
61% 20-13
56% 18-14
52% 17-16
TTL
64% 21-12
64% 21-12
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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