MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
27-37 | Road
105
MIAMI
HEATMIA
37-29 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
HEAT
0%
BUCKS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIL By 1-7 points
9.3%
MIL By 8-14 points
2.7%
MIA By 1-7 points
21.6%
MIA By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
109
MILWAUKEE
Miami
120
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
107
MILWAUKEE
Miami
110
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (-6)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u235.0
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim
u235.0
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
MIL @ MIA
105 - 112
Feb 24, 2026
MIA @ MIL
117 - 128
Nov 26, 2025
MIL @ MIA
103 - 106
Oct 6, 2025
MIL @ MIA
103 - 93
Apr 5, 2025
MIL @ MIA
121 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+108.6% more
Miami: 5.4
vs
Milwaukee: 2.6
Steals (L5)
+52.0% more
Miami: 11.4
vs
Milwaukee: 7.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+19.5%
Miami: 83.3%
vs
Milwaukee: 63.8%
Rebounding (L5)
+17.7% more
Miami: 47.4
vs
Milwaukee: 40.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
109.0
105
MIA Score
120.0
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 36.0
34.0 / 35.0
Assists
30.1 / 25.6
26.0 / 26.0
Blocks
5.4 / 2.6
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 46.8
41.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
83.3 / 63.8
81.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
47.4 / 40.3
53.0 / 36.0
Steals
11.4 / 7.5
4.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 15.7
12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
MIL
MIA
MIL
ML
48%
46-50
64%
61-35
59%
48-34
60%
49-32
ATS
51%
49-47
68%
65-31
59%
48-34
60%
49-32
TTL
59%
57-39
55%
53-43
100%
82-0
100%
81-0
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