UCF
KNIGHTSUCF
21-10 | Road
59
ARIZONA
WILDCATSARIZ
29-2 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
100%
WILDCATS
0%
KNIGHTS
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARIZ -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)
UCF By 1-7 points
13.7%
UCF By 8-14 points
4.8%
ARIZ By 1-7 points
25.3%
ARIZ By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
UCF
67
UCF
Arizona
75
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
UCF
65
UCF
Arizona
78
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats (+15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u159.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u159.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
UCF @ ARIZ
59 - 81
Jan 17, 2026
ARIZ @ UCF
84 - 77
Jan 11, 2025
UCF @ ARIZ
80 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+32.9% more
Arizona: 3.9
vs
UCF: 3.0
Assists (L5)
+32.6% more
Arizona: 17.1
vs
UCF: 12.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.8%
Arizona: 77.9%
vs
UCF: 67.1%
Steals (L5)
+9.7% more
Arizona: 7.1
vs
UCF: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCF Score
67.0
59
ARIZ Score
75.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 26.5
38.0 / 14.0
Assists
17.1 / 12.9
9.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.9 / 3.0
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.3 / 41.6
48.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
77.9 / 67.1
55.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
40.1 / 40.7
44.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.1 / 6.5
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.3 / 9.9
8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCF
21-12-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
ARIZ
Advantage
36-3-0
(92.3%)
Margin: 16.8
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCF
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
ARIZ
Advantage
23-15-1
(60.5%)
Margin: 16.8
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6%
Total +/-: +1.2
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
UCF
ARIZ
UCF
ML
67%
26-13
55%
18-15
68%
23-11
65%
20-11
ATS
74%
29-10
55%
18-15
68%
23-11
65%
20-11
TTL
56%
22-17
61%
20-13
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
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