KENTUCKY
WILDCATSUK
20-12 | Road
78
MISSOURI
TIGERSMIZ
20-11 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
TIGERS
0%
WILDCATS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MISSOURI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Missouri)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIZ -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIZ)
UK By 1-7 points
23.0%
UK By 8-14 points
12.2%
MIZ By 1-7 points
26.8%
MIZ By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Kentucky
80
KENTUCKY
Missouri
82
MISSOURI
Simulated Score
Kentucky
76
KENTUCKY
Missouri
72
MISSOURI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
UK @ MIZ
78 - 72
Jan 7, 2026
MIZ @ UK
73 - 68
Mar 8, 2025
UK @ MIZ
91 - 83
Jan 9, 2024
MIZ @ UK
77 - 90
Dec 28, 2022
UK @ MIZ
75 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+36.3% more
Missouri: 12.7
vs
Kentucky: 9.3
Blocks (L5)
+19.7% more
Missouri: 3.3
vs
Kentucky: 2.7
Assists (L5)
+29.4% more
Kentucky: 16.4
vs
Missouri: 11.6
Rebounding (L5)
+13.6% more
Kentucky: 37.0
vs
Missouri: 32.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UK Score
80.0
78
MIZ Score
82.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.1 / 32.7
38.0 / 29.0
Assists
11.6 / 16.4
10.0 / 18.0
Blocks
3.3 / 2.7
2.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 46.7
47.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
70.1 / 73.7
65.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
32.0 / 37.0
35.0 / 27.0
Steals
6.0 / 5.9
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 9.3
15.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UK
Advantage
22-14-0
(61.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
MIZ
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.8
ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UK
Advantage
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
MIZ
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 3.8
ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.5
MIZ
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
UK
MIZ
UK
ML
61%
20-13
71%
25-10
69%
22-10
72%
23-9
ATS
70%
23-10
83%
29-6
69%
22-10
72%
23-9
TTL
79%
26-7
63%
22-13
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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