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ANAHEIM

DUCKSANA

36-25-3  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

27-27-11  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Lukas Dostal
GOALTENDER

Lukas Dostal

#1 | Goaltender
@
Morgan Rielly
GOALTENDER

Morgan Rielly

#44 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Lukas Dostal None-None 5.24 0.815 --
Morgan Rielly None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
5.24 GAA --
0.815 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
DUCKS
100%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
DUCKS --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Toronto)
DucksANA (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ducks Cover

15.9%

Maple Leafs Cover

84.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

ANA By 1 goal

6.6%

ANA By 2-3 goals

3.7%

TOR By 1 goal

17.5%

TOR By 2-3 goals

37.2%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ANAHEIM
4
TORONTO
Simulated Score
2
ANAHEIM
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Maple Leafs (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 30, 2026 TOR @ ANA 5 - 4
Mar 12, 2026 ANA @ TOR 4 - 6
Mar 30, 2025 TOR @ ANA 3 - 2
Dec 12, 2024 ANA @ TOR 2 - 3
Feb 17, 2024 ANA @ TOR 2 - 9
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +17.6%
Toronto: 39.1% vs Anaheim: 21.5%
Blocked Shots (L5) +16.7% more
Toronto: 17.1 vs Anaheim: 14.6
Hits (L5) +16.1% more
Toronto: 22.5 vs Anaheim: 19.4
Faceoff % (L5) +7.7%
Toronto: 55.2% vs Anaheim: 47.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ANA Score 2.0 4
TOR Score 4.0 6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
92%MONEY8%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
ANA
TOR
ANA
ML
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
TTL
100% 4-0
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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