NORTHWESTERN
WILDCATSNU
14-18 | Road
74
INDIANA
HOOSIERSIU
18-13 | Home
61
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
HOOSIERS
100%
WILDCATS
--
HOOSIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IU +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)
NU By 1-7 points
26.8%
NU By 8-14 points
18.6%
IU By 1-7 points
23.0%
IU By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Northwestern
74
NORTHWESTERN
Indiana
72
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Northwestern
67
NORTHWESTERN
Indiana
75
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wildcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hoosiers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hoosiers (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Hoosiers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
NU @ IU
74 - 61
Feb 24, 2026
NU @ IU
72 - 68
Jan 22, 2025
IU @ NU
70 - 79
Feb 18, 2024
NU @ IU
76 - 72
Feb 15, 2023
IU @ NU
62 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+46.2% more
Northwestern: 7.1
vs
Indiana: 3.8
Assists (L5)
+17.7% more
Northwestern: 17.8
vs
Indiana: 14.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.1%
Northwestern: 78.8%
vs
Indiana: 75.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Northwestern: 34.5%
vs
Indiana: 32.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NU Score
74.0
74
IU Score
72.0
61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.8 / 34.5
35.0 / 43.0
Assists
14.7 / 17.8
10.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.4 / 2.1
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
50.9 / 47.4
44.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
75.7 / 78.8
68.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
26.4 / 26.6
29.0 / 27.0
Steals
3.8 / 7.1
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 8.5
11.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NU
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: +0.6
IU
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NU
Advantage
16-16-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: +0.6
IU
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.0
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
NU
IU
NU
ML
66%
21-11
47%
16-18
71%
22-9
68%
23-11
ATS
53%
17-15
50%
17-17
71%
22-9
68%
23-11
TTL
56%
18-14
53%
18-16
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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