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BYU

COUGARSBYU

22-10  |  Road

68
FINAL
Wed, Mar 11 • 7:00 PM ET
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WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAINEERSWVU

18-13  |  Home

48
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
0%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
COUGARS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CougarsBYU (-3.5) 0 MountaineersWVU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

38.2%

Mountaineers Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WVU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WVU)

BYU By 1-7 points

27.2%

BYU By 8-14 points

20.1%

WVU By 1-7 points

21.6%

WVU By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
84
BYU
81
WEST VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
72
BYU
75
WEST VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cougars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Loss
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 BYU @ WVU 68 - 48
Feb 28, 2026 BYU @ WVU 71 - 79
Mar 1, 2025 WVU @ BYU 56 - 77
Feb 11, 2025 BYU @ WVU 73 - 69
Feb 3, 2024 BYU @ WVU 86 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +9.6% more
BYU: 37.5 vs West Virginia: 33.9
Free Throw % (L5) +5.4%
BYU: 75.2% vs West Virginia: 69.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
BYU: 47.8% vs West Virginia: 43.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
BYU: 30.8% vs West Virginia: 29.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BYU Score 84.0 68
WVU Score 81.0 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.0 / 30.8 28.0 / 33.0
Assists 14.3 / 11.8 7.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.1 / 3.3 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.3 / 47.8 38.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 69.8 / 75.2 61.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 37.5 30.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.0 / 5.6 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 9.7 22.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BYU Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: -1.9
WVU
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BYU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: -1.9
WVU Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BYU
17-18-0
O: 48.6% / U: 51.4% Total +/-: +0.1
WVU
13-21-1
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WVU
BYU
WVU
BYU
ML
63% 22-13
60% 21-14
76% 26-8
72% 23-9
ATS
60% 21-14
54% 19-16
76% 26-8
72% 23-9
TTL
40% 14-21
69% 24-11
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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