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WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

32-26-7  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Mar 11 • 7:30 PM ET
Xfinity Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

FLYERSPHI

29-23-11  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
@
Cam York
GOALTENDER

Cam York

#8 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Logan Thompson None-None 3.08 0.857 --
Cam York None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.08 GAA --
0.857 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
📊
FLYERS
100%
CAPITALS --
FLYERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CapitalsWSH (-3.5) 0 FlyersPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Capitals Cover

30.9%

Flyers Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PHI +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

WSH By 1 goal

19.7%

WSH By 2-3 goals

29.6%

PHI By 1 goal

12.1%

PHI By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
WASHINGTON
2
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Capitals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flyers (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Flyers (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 31, 2026 PHI @ WSH 4 - 6
Mar 11, 2026 WSH @ PHI 1 - 4
Feb 25, 2026 PHI @ WSH 1 - 3
Feb 3, 2026 WSH @ PHI 2 - 4
Sep 25, 2025 PHI @ WSH 1 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +26.9% more
Washington: 5.4 vs Philadelphia: 3.9
Shots on Goal (L5) +25.1% more
Washington: 29.0 vs Philadelphia: 21.7
Blocked Shots (L5) +11.8% more
Washington: 16.7 vs Philadelphia: 14.7
Faceoff % (L5) +2.9%
Washington: 50.1% vs Philadelphia: 47.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.0 1
PHI Score 2.0 4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
35%MONEY65%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
WSH
PHI
WSH
ML
75% 3-1
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
ATS
25% 1-3
100% 3-0
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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