CALIFORNIA
GOLDEN BEARSCAL
21-10 | Road
89
FLORIDA STATE
SEMINOLESFSU
17-14 | Home
95
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN BEARS
0%
SEMINOLES
100%
GOLDEN BEARS
--
SEMINOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FSU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)
CAL By 1-7 points
27.2%
CAL By 8-14 points
20.1%
FSU By 1-7 points
21.6%
FSU By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
California
69
CALIFORNIA
Florida State
66
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
California
71
CALIFORNIA
Florida State
78
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Bears
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Seminoles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Seminoles (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Seminoles (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
CAL @ FSU
89 - 95
Jan 28, 2026
CAL @ FSU
61 - 63
Jan 22, 2025
FSU @ CAL
68 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.2%
California: 77.1%
vs
Florida State: 67.9%
Blocks (L5)
+69.0% more
Florida State: 3.6
vs
California: 2.1
Assists (L5)
+25.0% more
Florida State: 15.2
vs
California: 12.2
Steals (L5)
+21.7% more
Florida State: 7.5
vs
California: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CAL Score
69.0
89
FSU Score
66.0
95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.0 / 28.0
46.0 / 41.0
Assists
15.2 / 12.2
19.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.6 / 2.1
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.5 / 40.7
57.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
67.9 / 77.1
63.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
32.9 / 33.4
26.0 / 38.0
Steals
7.5 / 6.1
8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 9.7
6.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
FSU
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
FSU
Advantage
19-13-1
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
CAL
FSU
CAL
ML
64%
21-12
61%
20-13
59%
19-13
77%
24-7
ATS
55%
18-15
64%
21-12
59%
19-13
78%
25-7
TTL
48%
16-17
70%
23-10
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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