CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
14-18 | Road
69
UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
22-10 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
0%
TRITONS
100%
MUSTANGS
--
TRITONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
CAL POLY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Cal Poly)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CP -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CP)
CP By 1-7 points
27.2%
CP By 8-14 points
23.0%
UCSD By 1-7 points
18.6%
UCSD By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal Poly
81
CAL POLY
UC San Diego
76
UC SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Cal Poly
65
CAL POLY
UC San Diego
78
UC SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tritons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Tritons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
CP @ UCSD
69 - 72
Feb 28, 2026
CP @ UCSD
64 - 80
Jan 1, 2026
UCSD @ CP
65 - 67
Feb 20, 2025
UCSD @ CP
81 - 67
Jan 9, 2025
CP @ UCSD
68 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+20.8% more
Cal Poly: 42.0
vs
UC San Diego: 33.2
Blocks (L5)
+14.9% more
Cal Poly: 2.5
vs
UC San Diego: 2.1
Turnovers (L5)
+11.4% more
Cal Poly: 11.5
vs
UC San Diego: 10.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.6%
Cal Poly: 84.8%
vs
UC San Diego: 75.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CP Score
81.0
69
UCSD Score
76.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.6 / 33.0
25.0 / 19.0
Assists
15.6 / 16.9
15.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.1 / 2.5
2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 43.9
45.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
75.2 / 84.8
68.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
33.2 / 42.0
38.0 / 39.0
Steals
10.4 / 6.8
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 11.5
13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CP
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CP
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
UCSD
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSD
CP
UCSD
CP
ML
56%
19-15
58%
19-14
65%
22-12
58%
19-14
ATS
50%
17-17
64%
21-12
65%
22-12
58%
19-14
TTL
62%
21-13
61%
20-13
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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