ST. BONAVENTURE
BONNIESSBU
15-16 | Road
99
LA SALLE
EXPLORERSLAS
9-22 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
BONNIES
0%
EXPLORERS
100%
BONNIES
--
EXPLORERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
ST. BONAVENTURE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (St. Bonaventure)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SBU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SBU)
SBU By 1-7 points
21.6%
SBU By 8-14 points
27.4%
LAS By 1-7 points
9.3%
LAS By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Bonaventure
82
ST. BONAVENTURE
La Salle
71
LA SALLE
Simulated Score
St. Bonaventure
73
ST. BONAVENTURE
La Salle
68
LA SALLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bonnies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bonnies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bonnies (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Bonnies (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
SBU @ LAS
99 - 80
Jan 17, 2026
SBU @ LAS
74 - 78
Jan 11, 2025
LAS @ SBU
83 - 82
Mar 13, 2024
LAS @ SBU
73 - 75
Feb 21, 2024
SBU @ LAS
59 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+22.5% more
St. Bonaventure: 14.7
vs
La Salle: 11.4
Turnovers (L5)
+20.2% more
St. Bonaventure: 11.7
vs
La Salle: 9.3
Steals (L5)
+16.6% more
St. Bonaventure: 7.0
vs
La Salle: 5.8
Blocks (L5)
+15.8% more
St. Bonaventure: 3.3
vs
La Salle: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SBU Score
82.0
99
LAS Score
71.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.9 / 34.0
25.0 / 54.0
Assists
11.4 / 14.7
12.0 / 24.0
Blocks
2.8 / 3.3
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
39.9 / 42.6
43.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
75.7 / 71.7
80.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
35.2 / 39.2
30.0 / 41.0
Steals
5.8 / 7.0
11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
9.3 / 11.7
11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SBU
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
LAS
9-23-0
(28.1%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SBU
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
LAS
Advantage
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +5.1
LAS
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAS
SBU
LAS
SBU
ML
69%
22-10
59%
20-14
69%
22-10
61%
20-13
ATS
78%
25-7
50%
17-17
69%
22-10
61%
20-13
TTL
66%
21-11
38%
13-21
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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