LSU
TIGERSLSU
15-16 | Road
82
KENTUCKY
WILDCATSUK
19-12 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
WILDCATS
0%
TIGERS
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UK -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)
LSU By 1-7 points
18.6%
LSU By 8-14 points
8.0%
UK By 1-7 points
27.2%
UK By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
LSU
76
LSU
Kentucky
81
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
LSU
75
LSU
Kentucky
82
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.5
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
LSU @ UK
82 - 87
Jan 14, 2026
UK @ LSU
75 - 74
Mar 4, 2025
LSU @ UK
64 - 95
Feb 21, 2024
UK @ LSU
74 - 75
Jan 3, 2023
LSU @ UK
71 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+43.0% more
LSU: 4.6
vs
Kentucky: 2.6
Turnovers (L5)
+24.5% more
LSU: 15.1
vs
Kentucky: 11.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.4%
LSU: 76.0%
vs
Kentucky: 73.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LSU Score
76.0
82
UK Score
81.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 36.3
27.0 / 25.0
Assists
17.1 / 16.0
15.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.6 / 4.6
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.1 / 45.5
50.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
73.6 / 76.0
74.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
39.0 / 40.0
33.0 / 35.0
Steals
6.4 / 6.7
5.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 15.1
5.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LSU
--
UK
Advantage
22-14-0
(61.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LSU
--
UK
Advantage
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LSU
--
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
LSU
UK
LSU
ML
71%
25-10
62%
20-12
72%
23-9
62%
20-12
ATS
83%
29-6
66%
21-11
72%
23-9
62%
20-12
TTL
63%
22-13
72%
23-9
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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