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GRAMBLING

TIGERSGRAM

14-18  |  Road

65
FINAL
Tue, Mar 10 • 8:30 PM ET
Gateway Center
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JACKSON STATE

TIGERSJKST

11-20  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
TIGERS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
JACKSON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Jackson State)
TigersGRAM (-3.5) 0 TigersJKST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

2.9%

Tigers Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JKST -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JKST)

GRAM By 1-7 points

2.2%

GRAM By 8-14 points

0.4%

JKST By 1-7 points

9.3%

JKST By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
63
GRAMBLING
82
JACKSON STATE
Simulated Score
68
GRAMBLING
72
JACKSON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 10, 2026 GRAM @ JKST 65 - 68
Jan 31, 2026 GRAM @ JKST 69 - 66
Feb 1, 2025 JKST @ GRAM 65 - 50
Feb 3, 2024 GRAM @ JKST 70 - 62
Mar 10, 2023 JKST @ GRAM 69 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +2.2%
Jackson State: 76.9% vs Grambling: 74.6%
Assists (L5) +33.5% more
Grambling: 12.4 vs Jackson State: 8.3
Blocks (L5) +33.3% more
Grambling: 2.9 vs Jackson State: 1.9
Turnovers (L5) +18.8% more
Grambling: 13.1 vs Jackson State: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GRAM Score 63.0 65
JKST Score 82.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 35.9 27.0 / 40.0
Assists 8.3 / 12.4 9.0 / 10.0
Blocks 1.9 / 2.9 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 38.0 / 40.5 37.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 76.9 / 74.6 65.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 34.7 / 35.2 41.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.3 / 7.6 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 13.1 13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GRAM Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
JKST
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -13.5 ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GRAM Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
JKST
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -13.5 ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
GRAM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -4.0
JKST
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JKST
GRAM
JKST
GRAM
ML
77% 24-7
68% 21-10
73% 19-7
68% 17-8
ATS
77% 24-7
61% 19-12
73% 19-7
68% 17-8
TTL
58% 18-13
58% 18-13
100% 26-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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