PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
37-27 | Road
129
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
27-36 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
0%
BUCKS
100%
SUNS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHX -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
PHX By 1-7 points
23.0%
PHX By 8-14 points
27.2%
MIL By 1-7 points
10.7%
MIL By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
115
PHOENIX
Milwaukee
105
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Phoenix
113
PHOENIX
Milwaukee
118
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Suns
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Suns (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o218.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Sim
u218.5
Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
MIL @ PHX
108 - 105
Mar 10, 2026
PHX @ MIL
129 - 114
Apr 1, 2025
PHX @ MIL
123 - 133
Mar 24, 2025
MIL @ PHX
106 - 108
Mar 17, 2024
PHX @ MIL
129 - 140
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+27.2% more
Phoenix: 4.6
vs
Milwaukee: 3.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.2%
Phoenix: 77.0%
vs
Milwaukee: 60.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
Phoenix: 35.5%
vs
Milwaukee: 32.9%
Turnovers (L5)
+19.8% more
Milwaukee: 15.1
vs
Phoenix: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
115.0
129
MIL Score
105.0
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.9 / 35.5
42.0 / 47.0
Assists
25.4 / 24.7
26.0 / 33.0
Blocks
3.4 / 4.6
1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
44.7 / 43.5
51.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
60.7 / 77.0
70.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
40.9 / 43.2
39.0 / 39.0
Steals
8.2 / 7.5
6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
15.1 / 12.6
17.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
PHX
MIL
PHX
ML
64%
61-35
57%
60-45
60%
49-32
51%
45-43
ATS
68%
65-31
58%
59-43-3
60%
49-32
51%
45-43
TTL
55%
53-43
59%
61-42-2
100%
81-0
100%
88-0
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