SAN JOSE
SHARKSSJ
30-25-6 | Road
3
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
39-19-6 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Yaroslav Askarov
#30 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Alex Lyon
#34 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov | None-None | 5.09 | 0.800 | -- |
| Alex Lyon | None-None | 3.00 | 0.850 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
5.09
GAA
Ldr 3.00
0.800
Save %
Ldr 0.850
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SHARKS
100%
SABRES
0%
SHARKS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
SJ By 1 goal
12.1%
SJ By 2-3 goals
9.3%
BUF By 1 goal
19.7%
BUF By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
San Jose
2
SAN JOSE
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
San Jose
4
SAN JOSE
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Sabres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sharks
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Sabres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Sharks (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 19, 2026
BUF @ SJ
5 - 0
Mar 10, 2026
SJ @ BUF
3 - 6
Mar 4, 2025
SJ @ BUF
6 - 2
Nov 23, 2024
BUF @ SJ
4 - 2
Jan 27, 2024
BUF @ SJ
5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+17.5%
Buffalo: 26.3%
vs
San Jose: 8.8%
Takeaways (L5)
+17.2% more
Buffalo: 5.0
vs
San Jose: 4.2
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.9%
Buffalo: 48.1%
vs
San Jose: 44.3%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+22.9% more
San Jose: 15.8
vs
Buffalo: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SJ Score
2.0
3
BUF Score
3.0
6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
SJ
BUF
SJ
ML
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
0%
0-3
ATS
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
TTL
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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