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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

27-26-11  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Mar 10 • 7:00 PM ET
Bell Centre
View Odds Details →

MONTREAL

CANADIENSMTL

34-18-10  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Troy Stecher
GOALTENDER

Troy Stecher

#28 | Defense
@
Jakub Dobes
GOALTENDER

Jakub Dobes

#75 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Troy Stecher None-None -- -- --
Jakub Dobes None-None 1.00 0.944 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 1.00
-- Save % 0.944
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
📊
CANADIENS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS --
CANADIENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MONTREAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Montreal)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 CanadiensMTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

30.9%

Canadiens Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around MTL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTL)

TOR By 1 goal

12.1%

TOR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

MTL By 1 goal

19.7%

MTL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TORONTO
4
MONTREAL
Simulated Score
2
TORONTO
4
MONTREAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Canadiens Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Canadiens Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Canadiens (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Canadiens (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 29, 2026 MTL @ TOR 3 - 2
Mar 10, 2026 TOR @ MTL 1 - 3
Dec 6, 2025 MTL @ TOR 2 - 1
Nov 22, 2025 TOR @ MTL 2 - 5
Oct 8, 2025 MTL @ TOR 2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +16.6% more
Toronto: 4.3 vs Montreal: 3.6
Blocked Shots (L5) +13.7% more
Toronto: 17.1 vs Montreal: 14.7
Hits (L5) +9.5% more
Toronto: 22.3 vs Montreal: 20.2
Power Play % (L5) +8.2%
Toronto: 39.1% vs Montreal: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.0 1
MTL Score 4.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
95%MONEY5%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTL
TOR
MTL
TOR
ML
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
ATS
67% 2-1
0% 0-4
100% 3-0
75% 3-1
TTL
33% 1-2
100% 4-0
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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