Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Orange @ Mustangs SYR @ SMU

SYRACUSE

ORANGESYR

15-16  |  Road

69
FINAL
Tue, Mar 10 • 4:30 PM ET
Spectrum Center
View Odds Details →

SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

19-12  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
ORANGE
100%
📊
MUSTANGS
0%
ORANGE --
MUSTANGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (SMU)
OrangeSYR (-3.5) 0 MustangsSMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orange Cover

30.9%

Mustangs Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

SYR By 1-7 points

18.6%

SYR By 8-14 points

8.0%

SMU By 1-7 points

27.2%

SMU By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
74
SYRACUSE
79
SMU
Simulated Score
72
SYRACUSE
75
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mustangs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mustangs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mustangs (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Mustangs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 10, 2026 SYR @ SMU 69 - 86
Feb 14, 2026 SMU @ SYR 78 - 79
Mar 12, 2025 SYR @ SMU 53 - 73
Mar 4, 2025 SYR @ SMU 75 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +70.2% more
SMU: 6.5 vs Syracuse: 3.8
Assists (L5) +22.9% more
SMU: 12.9 vs Syracuse: 10.5
Turnovers (L5) +20.5% more
SMU: 12.1 vs Syracuse: 10.0
Rebounding (L5) +12.8% more
SMU: 35.7 vs Syracuse: 31.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SYR Score 74.0 69
SMU Score 79.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.7 / 30.2 33.0 / 26.0
Assists 12.9 / 10.5 20.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.8 / 5.0 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 42.8 47.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 67.2 / 77.1 88.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 31.6 44.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.5 / 3.8 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 10.0 7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SYR
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -1.6
SMU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SYR Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -1.6
SMU
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SYR
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +1.6
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
SYR
SMU
SYR
ML
59% 20-14
78% 25-7
73% 24-9
69% 22-10
ATS
62% 21-13
69% 22-10
73% 24-9
69% 22-10
TTL
56% 19-15
66% 21-11
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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