PITTSBURGH
PANTHERSPITT
12-19 | Road
64
STANFORD
CARDINALSTAN
20-11 | Home
63
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
CARDINAL
0%
PANTHERS
--
CARDINAL
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
STANFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Stanford)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STAN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STAN)
PITT By 1-7 points
23.0%
PITT By 8-14 points
12.2%
STAN By 1-7 points
26.8%
STAN By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
72
PITTSBURGH
Stanford
74
STANFORD
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
71
PITTSBURGH
Stanford
75
STANFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinal
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinal
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinal (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Cardinal (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o137.5
Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
PITT @ STAN
64 - 63
Feb 25, 2026
PITT @ STAN
67 - 75
Jan 4, 2025
STAN @ PITT
68 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+41.3% more
Stanford: 3.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 2.5
Steals (L5)
+13.3% more
Stanford: 8.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+11.1%
Stanford: 41.9%
vs
Pittsburgh: 30.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.7%
Stanford: 49.5%
vs
Pittsburgh: 43.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PITT Score
72.0
64
STAN Score
74.0
63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.9 / 30.8
40.0 / 18.0
Assists
11.7 / 13.2
9.0 / 9.0
Blocks
3.6 / 2.5
8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.5 / 43.8
48.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
75.2 / 69.9
83.0 / 56.0
Rebounding
32.2 / 35.4
28.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.8 / 7.7
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
8.2 / 11.2
10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PITT
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: -1.3
ATS +/-: -0.5
STAN
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.0
ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PITT
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: -1.3
ATS +/-: -0.5
STAN
16-16-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.0
ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PITT
17-15-1
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: -0.2
STAN
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
PITT
STAN
PITT
ML
48%
16-17
58%
19-14
50%
16-16
45%
15-18
ATS
48%
16-17
64%
21-12
50%
16-16
45%
15-18
TTL
55%
18-15
61%
20-13
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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