Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Paladins @ Buccaneers FUR @ ETSU

FURMAN

PALADINSFUR

21-12  |  Road

76
FINAL
Mon, Mar 9 • 7:00 PM ET
Harrah's Cherokee Center
View Odds Details →

EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

23-10  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
PALADINS
0%
📊
BUCCANEERS
100%
PALADINS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
FURMAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Furman)
PaladinsFUR (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersETSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Paladins Cover

72.6%

Buccaneers Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FUR -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FUR)

FUR By 1-7 points

26.8%

FUR By 8-14 points

24.3%

ETSU By 1-7 points

16.9%

ETSU By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
78
FURMAN
72
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
72
FURMAN
75
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Paladins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Paladins (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 9, 2026 FUR @ ETSU 76 - 61
Feb 18, 2026 ETSU @ FUR 78 - 69
Feb 4, 2026 FUR @ ETSU 71 - 75
Feb 2, 2025 FUR @ ETSU 69 - 72
Jan 15, 2025 ETSU @ FUR 70 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +22.7% more
Furman: 3.1 vs East Tennessee State: 2.4
Free Throw % (L5) +6.9%
Furman: 73.1% vs East Tennessee State: 66.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.5%
Furman: 41.0% vs East Tennessee State: 35.6%
Steals (L5) +53.8% more
East Tennessee State: 7.4 vs Furman: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FUR Score 78.0 76
ETSU Score 72.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 41.0 19.0 / 38.0
Assists 13.1 / 13.1 5.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.4 / 3.1 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.9 / 49.3 48.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 66.2 / 73.1 56.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 30.9 / 32.5 24.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.4 / 4.8 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 10.1 10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FUR
22-13-0 (62.9%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FUR Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
ETSU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
FUR
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETSU
FUR
ETSU
FUR
ML
42% 14-19
71% 25-10
70% 23-10
62% 21-13
ATS
58% 19-14
63% 22-13
70% 23-10
62% 21-13
TTL
45% 15-18
57% 20-15
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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