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NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

18-16  |  Road

62
FINAL
Sun, Mar 8 • 9:00 PM ET
Denny Sanford Premier Center
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NORTH DAKOTA STATE

BISONNDSU

26-7  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING HAWKS
100%
📊
BISON
0%
FIGHTING HAWKS --
BISON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (North Dakota State)
Fighting HawksUND (-3.5) 0 BisonNDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Hawks Cover

24.2%

Bison Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NDSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NDSU)

UND By 1-7 points

15.3%

UND By 8-14 points

5.8%

NDSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

NDSU By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
65
NORTH DAKOTA
72
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Simulated Score
72
NORTH DAKOTA
69
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bison Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Hawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bison (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Fighting Hawks (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 UND @ NDSU 62 - 70
Feb 28, 2026 UND @ NDSU 63 - 96
Feb 14, 2026 NDSU @ UND 83 - 66
Feb 22, 2025 NDSU @ UND 77 - 79
Jan 25, 2025 UND @ NDSU 82 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +42.5% more
North Dakota State: 16.2 vs North Dakota: 11.4
Rebounding (L5) +32.7% more
North Dakota State: 39.2 vs North Dakota: 29.5
Blocks (L5) +25.0% more
North Dakota State: 2.1 vs North Dakota: 1.6
Steals (L5) +22.7% more
North Dakota State: 7.6 vs North Dakota: 6.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UND Score 65.0 62
NDSU Score 72.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.4 / 35.0 43.0 / 31.0
Assists 16.2 / 11.4 12.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.1 / 1.6 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 45.7 45.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 72.1 / 67.2 53.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 39.2 / 29.5 41.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.6 / 6.2 4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 9.1 11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UND
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
NDSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
NDSU
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NDSU
UND
NDSU
UND
ML
49% 17-18
44% 15-19
59% 20-14
50% 17-17
ATS
54% 19-16
50% 17-17
59% 20-14
50% 17-17
TTL
43% 15-20
65% 22-12
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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