UTSA
ROADRUNNERSUTSA
5-24 | Road
71
RICE
OWLSRICE
12-18 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
0%
OWLS
100%
ROADRUNNERS
--
OWLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
RICE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around RICE +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RICE)
UTSA By 1-7 points
24.3%
UTSA By 8-14 points
26.8%
RICE By 1-7 points
12.2%
RICE By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UTSA
74
UTSA
Rice
65
RICE
Simulated Score
UTSA
71
UTSA
Rice
76
RICE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Roadrunners
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Owls
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Owls (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Sim
Owls (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
UTSA @ RICE
71 - 80
Jan 14, 2026
RICE @ UTSA
89 - 73
Mar 2, 2025
RICE @ UTSA
56 - 84
Jan 14, 2025
UTSA @ RICE
90 - 84
Feb 3, 2024
RICE @ UTSA
80 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+31.5% more
UTSA: 5.0
vs
Rice: 3.4
Steals (L5)
+26.7% more
UTSA: 6.6
vs
Rice: 4.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.1%
UTSA: 75.2%
vs
Rice: 62.1%
Turnovers (L5)
+26.8% more
Rice: 13.3
vs
UTSA: 10.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score
74.0
71
RICE Score
65.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.6 / 34.4
26.0 / 25.0
Assists
11.3 / 10.1
13.0 / 9.0
Blocks
3.4 / 5.0
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
41.4 / 41.9
38.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
62.1 / 75.2
57.0 / 61.0
Rebounding
36.7 / 33.1
50.0 / 47.0
Steals
4.8 / 6.6
4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 10.5
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA
5-25-0
(16.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
RICE
Advantage
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
RICE
Advantage
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.2
RICE
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4%
Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICE
UTSA
RICE
UTSA
ML
53%
16-14
83%
24-5
53%
16-14
48%
14-15
ATS
60%
18-12
72%
21-8
53%
16-14
50%
15-15
TTL
77%
23-7
66%
19-10
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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