ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
23-7 | Road
78
MARYLAND
TERRAPINSMD
11-19 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING ILLINI
0%
TERRAPINS
100%
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
TERRAPINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ILL -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)
ILL By 1-7 points
5.8%
ILL By 8-14 points
15.3%
MD By 1-7 points
1.1%
MD By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Illinois
85
ILLINOIS
Maryland
63
MARYLAND
Simulated Score
Illinois
69
ILLINOIS
Maryland
78
MARYLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Fighting Illini
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Terrapins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Fighting Illini (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Terrapins (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
ILL @ MD
78 - 72
Jan 21, 2026
MD @ ILL
70 - 89
Mar 14, 2025
ILL @ MD
65 - 88
Jan 23, 2025
MD @ ILL
91 - 70
Feb 17, 2024
ILL @ MD
85 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+44.4% more
Illinois: 4.8
vs
Maryland: 2.7
Assists (L5)
+22.2% more
Illinois: 13.9
vs
Maryland: 10.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+19.2%
Illinois: 81.6%
vs
Maryland: 62.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.0%
Illinois: 43.0%
vs
Maryland: 37.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ILL Score
85.0
78
MD Score
63.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.5 / 31.8
30.0 / 21.0
Assists
10.8 / 13.9
8.0 / 14.0
Blocks
4.0 / 3.9
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
37.0 / 43.0
46.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
62.4 / 81.6
73.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
38.3 / 40.8
30.0 / 33.0
Steals
2.7 / 4.8
3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 7.8
8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
MD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
MD
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
MD
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MD
ILL
MD
ILL
ML
70%
23-10
65%
24-13
67%
22-11
57%
20-15
ATS
64%
21-12
70%
26-11
67%
22-11
57%
20-15
TTL
64%
21-12
57%
21-16
100%
33-0
100%
35-0
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