PENN STATE
NITTANY LIONSPSU
12-18 | Road
62
RUTGERS
SCARLET KNIGHTSRUTG
12-18 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
NITTANY LIONS
0%
SCARLET KNIGHTS
100%
NITTANY LIONS
--
SCARLET KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Penn State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PSU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)
PSU By 1-7 points
25.3%
PSU By 8-14 points
26.2%
RUTG By 1-7 points
13.7%
RUTG By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Penn State
81
PENN STATE
Rutgers
73
RUTGERS
Simulated Score
Penn State
65
PENN STATE
Rutgers
68
RUTGERS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nittany Lions
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Scarlet Knights
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nittany Lions (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Scarlet Knights (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
PSU @ RUTG
62 - 74
Feb 18, 2026
RUTG @ PSU
85 - 72
Jan 20, 2025
RUTG @ PSU
72 - 80
Dec 10, 2024
PSU @ RUTG
76 - 80
Jan 31, 2024
PSU @ RUTG
61 - 46
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+36.9% more
Penn State: 12.5
vs
Rutgers: 7.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Penn State: 47.9%
vs
Rutgers: 44.6%
Blocks (L5)
+61.3% more
Rutgers: 2.0
vs
Penn State: 1.2
Assists (L5)
+22.8% more
Rutgers: 14.0
vs
Penn State: 11.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PSU Score
81.0
62
RUTG Score
73.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.1 / 38.2
32.0 / 14.0
Assists
14.0 / 11.4
16.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.0 / 1.2
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 47.9
44.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
77.9 / 77.7
82.0 / 59.0
Rebounding
25.4 / 22.8
36.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.3 / 6.3
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
7.9 / 12.5
7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -5.7
ATS +/-: -3.3
RUTG
Advantage
14-20-0
(41.2%)
Margin: -4.8
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -5.7
ATS +/-: -3.3
RUTG
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -4.8
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.8
RUTG
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2%
Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RUTG
PSU
RUTG
PSU
ML
53%
18-16
72%
23-9
70%
23-10
56%
18-14
ATS
68%
23-11
72%
23-9
70%
23-10
56%
18-14
TTL
53%
18-16
66%
21-11
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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